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Turkey's Economic Outlook: Central Bank Raises Inflation and Dollar Forecasts
Key Highlights
- Foreign exchange reserves rise to $140 billion by year-end, up from $98 billion in May 2023.
- Central Bank releases market expectations for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.
- Inflation forecast for 2024 revised to 36%, while 2025 estimate remains at 14%.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has unveiled its latest economic projections, which indicate a significant increase in foreign exchange reserves and revised inflation estimates.
According to the TCMB's report, Turkey's foreign exchange reserves surged to $140 billion as of December 2023, a notable increase from $98 billion recorded in May of the same year. This rise in reserves reflects the government's efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira and bolster the country's economic resilience.
The Central Bank also released market expectations for key economic indicators, including interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The anticipated maximum exchange rate for February 2024 is 3687, while the minimum rate is estimated to be 3529.
Regarding inflation, the TCMB revised its forecast for the end of 2024 to 36%. This represents an upward adjustment compared to the previous estimate of 34%. The inflation forecast for the end of 2025 remains unchanged at 14%. These revised estimates reflect the ongoing impact of global economic headwinds and domestic factors on Turkey's price levels.
The Central Bank's projections provide valuable insights into Turkey's economic trajectory and are closely monitored by investors and policymakers alike. The upward revision in inflation forecasts suggests that the central bank will likely maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance to curb price pressures.
Usak Gundem
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